COVID DIARIES, 11 SEPTEMBER 2020

If We Talk About The Virus Less, Maybe It’ll Just Go Away

Declining disease this week, but there’s still a long way to go

Nationally, coronavirus metrics were down this week, with 28% fewer new cases and 25% fewer in deaths compared with the previous week. However, total tests also fell by 17%, the first decline in testing since mid-August.
California’s coronavirus numbers are lower than even recent trend lines suggest, an encouraging sign. However, testing declined 17% this week; there were more than 130,000 fewer tests in the Golden State this week than there were in early August.
On a national scale, testing peaked in late July. It hasn’t returned to that level since, and this week turned down again after a couple of weeks of modest increases.
The virus is widely distributed throughout the country, with the Midwest and South particularly hard hit. South Carolina won this week’s “honor” of being more infectious per capita than any other state, by a fair margin.
Computational biologist Mike Bass’ analysis of state data shows sharp declines in new cases, both statewide and here in Ventura County, since the summer surge peaked in mid-July. However, we still have more than twice the number of new cases/day than when the surge began after Memorial Day.
Computational biologist Mike Bass’ analysis California’s new cases have held below the 14-day trend line for several days running. That means statewide we’re beating the virus.
In Ventura County, computational biologist Mike Bass’ analysis shows new-case numbers holding steady right along the 14-day trend line. There were a couple of encouraging low reports this week, but not enough yet to significantly alter the recent trend line.

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