COVID-19 DIARIES, WEEK OF 23 OCTOBER 2020

The Coming Storm

The coronavirus news is grim — and likely to get more so

Ventura County this week edged closer back toward the state’s purple tier. This chart from computational biologist Mike Bass evaluates a 7-day rolling average of coronavirus cases per 100,000 people — a key metric used by the state in assigning tier levels. After an overall downward trend following the summer surge, cases are again on the rise.
New cases rose significantly above the 14-day rolling trend in Ventura County for the past couple of days, as this analysis by computational biologist Mike Bass shows. It’s too early to call this a trend, but coupled with increases statewide and nationally it is a cause for concern.
California’s new cases also rose above the 14-day rolling trend, as this analysis by computational biologist Mike Bass shows. As with Ventura County, it’s too early to say if this trend will continue.
About the only positive coronavirus new this week is that hospitalizations in California by 1%. But that’s a much slower decline than last week, and masks an increase in ICU patients. Also, this week’s deaths, compared with week-ago totals, rose for the first time since mid-September.
All the key US coronavirus metrics rose this week. On Friday, the nation set a single-day record with more than 83,000 new cases. Hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths also rose.
Coronavirus cases, measured per capita, are even more widespread around the nation than they were last week, and more serious. The Midwest and Great Plains states are the hardest hit, but more states moved into the most infectious tier this week. And New Hampshire’s number is not 0; it just didn’t report on Friday.

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